David Ricks

Ricks argues that AI structure prediction solves only about one-thousandth of the problems in drug discovery, tempering hype around AI-designed drugs.

A machine can “predict things pretty well, like predicting the structure of a protein,” Ricks said according to Fortune, “but that is one maybe 1,000th of the kind of problems we face in drug discovery.”

Ricks says language models are not particularly good at biology and chemistry because they are trained on human language rather than the languages of science, and favors many narrow models.

language models are “not particularly good” at biology and chemistry because “they’re trained on the human language, not on the language of chemistry, physics, and biology.”

Ricks said now is the right time to merge Lilly's U.S. and international commercial units to build on momentum, and named Ilya Yuffa, who has run both, to lead global customer-facing operations.

To build on our momentum, now is the right time to consolidate our geographies for greater impact. Ilya has run both our international and U.S. businesses, and his range of experience and commitment to excellence make him uniquely qualified to lead our customer-facing operations worldwide.

David Ricks said only 3% to 10% of potential US patients access weight loss care, so the market has dramatic room to expand.

Lilly chief David Ricks, in a CNBC interview, said that only 3% to 10% of potential patients access weight loss care in the U.S., and he added that "room for expansion here of this market is dramatic."

David Ricks said only 3% to 10% of potential U.S. patients access weight loss care, so the market has dramatic room to expand.

only 3% to 10% of potential patients access weight loss care in the U.S., and he added that "room for expansion here of this market is dramatic."

David Ricks said Lilly's third quarter exceeded the company's prior expectations, which allowed it to raise its full-year outlook.

Lilly had another strong quarter, exceeding our prior expectations and allowing us to raise our full-year outlook.

David Ricks attributed Lilly's strong third quarter to broad global consumer demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound, along with Foundayo launches and wider US insurance coverage for obesity treatment.

broad global consumer demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound,

Ricks expects Lilly's incretin leadership to shape global health for decades, with three-fourths of the pipeline outside obesity driving diversified, durable growth.

Given the depth of our incretin pipeline, we expect our leadership position in cardiometabolic health and broad pipeline of next generation obesity medicines to have a major impact on global health For decades to come. And with 3-fourths of our clinical pipeline focused on diseases outside of obesity, we are developing new medicines. That have the potential to impact a broad range of diseases, and deliver diversified, durable growth, for Lilly and our shareholders.

Ricks is optimistic the Medicare GLP-1 bridge program will be expanded, citing strong uptake, cost effectiveness and administration support.

we think are pretty optimistic about expansion, I think, for 3 reasons, Carter. 1 is the early uptake is strong, and I think you see both demand and appropriate on label use of the medications

Ricks believes the bridge program's cost effectiveness could lead to permanent coverage, ideally via Part D.

But I think all signals now point to a pretty successful cost effectiveness which could yield either a legislative or a regulatory shift in the coverage permanently. In the meantime, I think there is a lot of energy with the people running CMS at current point to continue this, and the right way to do that is put this into the Part D benefit.

Ricks says Lilly is leading the largest new category expansion in pharma history, which makes guidance hard to forecast.

But let's remember, like, we are in the middle of the largest new category expansion in the history of the pharmaceutical industry. And Lilly's leading that. So there is a number of things that have never actually happened before.

Ricks sees Foundayo's type 2 diabetes indication as a major market expansion since about half of US GLP-1 volume is in diabetes.

I would just add we are under review for type 2 diabetes and we see that as an extraordinary opportunity for Foundayo as well. Remembering today in The US, roughly half the volume of GLP-1s is in diabetes. So that is a big market expansion.

Ricks says Lilly aims for a tighter pricing band for obesity drugs across US and ex-US markets due to their consumer nature.

I mean, our goal because of the consumer nature of this, is to much tighter band of pricing on obesity medicines than maybe you have seen historically in other medicine categories.

Ricks said only about 3% of eligible patients globally and roughly 10% in the U.S. access obesity care, implying dramatic room for market expansion.

"It could be a lot more is the bottom line," Ricks said on "Squawk on the Street." "Today, globally, we'd estimate maybe 3% of eligible patients access obesity care. In the U.S., maybe 10%. So the room for expansion here, of this market, is dramatic.

Ricks said Lilly leads the market and that growth will be driven by expanded access, including Medicare, and new innovation.

Of course, Lilly is at the front of that. That's going to be driven by both our access efforts [such as the Medicare program] and new innovation.

Ricks says only about 3% of eligible patients globally and 10% in the US access obesity care, so market expansion room is dramatic with Lilly leading.

I guess we'd estimate maybe 3% of eligible patients access obesity care. In the US, maybe 10%. So, the room for expansion here of this market is dramatic. Of course, Lily's at the front of that.

Ricks says the Medicare obesity bridge program giving seniors access for $50 a month is a compelling offer and is taking off.

Starting July 1, uh we worked with the Trump administration and Dr. Oz deserves a lot of credit here for his vision to develop a special program where seniors um can use uh our OBC care products uh Zapbound and Foundo um and access those for $50 a month out of pocket which is a compelling value proposition

Ricks cites a study estimating $25B in US government savings over 10 years from greater obesity drug use, arguing prevention is the future.

the USC Schaefer Center, which is a third party that analyzes uh healthcare markets, put out a preprint paper showing they estimate the US government will save $25 billion over 10 years by using more obesity drugs. So, I think this is a a key to the future, which is prevent disease before it starts, cut it off at its trunk.

Ricks argues that drop-off in obesity drug use is driven mainly by affordability and coverage rather than tolerability.

So I think the key story here isn't that people don't tolerate the drugs over time. Um it's that they they worry about the affordability. We need more access and coverage.

Ricks highlights lintide, a selective amylin receptor agonist, as Lilly's largest-ever phase 3 program with fewer GI side effects and 19% weight loss in phase 2.

It's large program actually the largest phase 3 program we've ever invested in with a drug called lintide. This is a highly selective amalin receptor agonist. A new mechanism to treat obesity similar to GLP-1.

David Ricks said Lilly has all the clinical data needed to submit retatrutide, with manufacturing work being the remaining hurdle before regulatory review.

all the clinical data we need to submit

Ricks warned against dependence on a single country for medicines, pointing to China's growing share of drug innovation and production.

We don’t want to wake up in a world where every medicine we want or need is sourced from one country,

Ricks bluntly said Canada has lagged in attracting pharma production and companies and in adopting innovations in patient care.

As a destination for production, for company, and certainly as a place where patient care can adopt these innovations and elevate the quality and duration of life,” Ricks said, “it has been a laggard.”

Ricks said Canada has failed to turn its scientific talent into economic activity and must choose now whether to embrace life sciences, or recruiting trials and building an industry will get harder.

“That’s a national resource, but it has not been converted into economic activity, and I think that’s a shame.” “It’s a time for choosing, for this country and others, about whether you want to embrace life sciences and pharma,” he added. “It will get more difficult faster to recruit trials, get new medicines here or to grow an industry.”

David Ricks said Lilly's $6.5 billion Houston site will manufacture its latest obesity products in the US for domestic and global supply.

We are thrilled to break ground on our latest 'medicines made in America' site in the great state of Texas. This $6.5 billion investment will help change the game for tens of millions of people suffering from obesity. We will make and ship Lilly's latest products from Texas to people here at home and around the world.

Ricks argued that oral GLP-1 pills and Medicare's temporary Bridge access program are meaningfully expanding the GLP-1 market.

Lilly CEO David Ricks argued in a September CNBC interview that pills and Medicare's temporary Bridge access program were meaningfully expanding the GLP-1 market.

Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said the planned €2.3 billion Alzey plant investment in Germany would be halved, as Germany's drug-pricing pressure bites.

Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks told Handelsblatt that the originally planned €2.3 billion investment in the Alzey, Rhineland-Palatinate production site would be halved.

Original (zh)

6月3日，首席执行官戴夫·里克斯（Dave Ricks）对《商报》（Handelsblatt）说，原定23亿欧元的莱茵兰-普法尔茨州阿尔蔡（Alzey）生产基地投资减半