Birol stressed that geopolitics is now the dominant driver of energy, making energy security paramount, and markets won't return to pre-conflict conditions at least until 2027.
Birol emphasized that geopolitics has become the dominant variable influencing the sector, elevating energy security to a paramount priority. Consequently, the agency forecasts that energy markets will not revert to their pre-conflict state-at least not until 2027-as new supply chains and demand structures solidify.
All statements by Fatih Birol ›
Birol says the 35-by-35 electrification target would mainly cut oil demand via transport, and will face opposition from countries that want oil demand to stay high.
If this electrification target is met or agreed, the main implication will be reducing oil demand because the main implication will be on the transportation sector, and it will be a key. “There are countries who have some interest to not see the oil demand going down. Geopolitics has a long and dark shadow on energy.
Birol argues Australia is well placed to lead climate talks despite its fossil exports, saying the world would benefit from at least five Australias.
In fighting climate change, he says, “I would feel much better if there were not one, but at least five Australias in this world.”
Birol says renewables are expected to rise from one-third to nearly half of global electricity generation within five years.
Over the next five years, renewables are expected to grow from one-third to nearly half of global electricity generation
Birol says energy security, rather than environmental concern, is now the main driver of renewables expansion as countries cut exposure to imported fuels.
"Previously, environmental concerns were the policy priority behind the growth of renewables, whose falling costs have made them a competitive option in many markets - but today, it's mainly energy security that is driving renewables' expansion as more and more countries seek to reduce their exposure to imported fuels," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
Birol says renewables are spreading globally and will rise from a third of global electricity generation today to close to half within five years.
"The new chapter of the renewables growth story is a truly global one as their deployment spreads well beyond major markets into every corner of the world. This is making them a key pillar of the global power sector. Today, they account for a third of global electricity generation; in the next five years, they will be getting closer to half of it."