Burke maintains 4-6% ERCOT and 2-3% PJM load growth through 2030 and says flexible gas remains the cheapest, quickest incremental supply.
We still see load growth of 4% to 6% in ERCOT and 2% to 3% in PJM through 2030. Vistra with its large diversified fleet is well equipped to meet this growth. Our flexible combined cycle gas plants and quick-start peaking plants can operate at higher utilizations and that remains the cheapest and quickest source of incremental generation.
Burke said the election results don't alter Vistra's fundamental outlook, as its plans already assumed a conservative AI build-out.
To be clear, the pacing was already being impacted ahead of the election, but our plans have always had a more conservative view of the AI build-out. Stated more simply, the election results do not change our fundamental view of the opportunities Vistra has, and our team is prepared to continue executing.
Burke argued interconnection queues are inflated by speculative developers and that policymakers are working on longer-term fixes.
As we've said for some time, load interconnect queues were overstated across the country and especially in ERCOT, driven by speculation from developers who are keeping options open to see where progress can be made. Residents in some communities are understandably concerned about the level of proposed development activity and policymakers are working on longer-term solutions.
Burke advocates higher collateral, take-or-pay commitments, equipment visibility and end-customer agreements to filter interconnection requests.
raising the bar on these projects can go a long way towards identifying the ones that are likely to move forward. This includes higher collateral requirements for interconnect requests, committing the take-or-pay agreement for the incremental wires charges, line of sight to equipment and an agreement with an end-use customer.
Burke is bullish on dispatchable, flexible CCGT assets, citing higher capacity factors as renewables grow.
We think as renewable penetration continues throughout the country, you're seeing these assets get called on more. And you see that even in the appendix where you look at the CCGT capacity factors across our fleet, they're all up in Q3 relative to prior years. So we've been bullish on dispatchable. We've been bullish on flexibility.
Burke said the 2030 outlook assumes no power price recovery; near-term ERCOT pricing hinges on how fast load is connected.
We are not making any assumptions about power price recoveries. It reflects the curves as you see them as noted in our hedge profiles and just kind of stepping that forward based off public available information. Now we think the near term on this is really going to be function of how does Texas get back into gear in terms of hooking up load.