Liang estimates that, citing South Korea's example, strong fertility support could raise China's fertility rate to 1.5 and restore births to about 12 million a year.
If welfare support is adequate, China's total fertility rate could climb from below 1 back to 1.5, and annual births could return from about 8 million to 12 million; even cash subsidies alone could lift births by 20-30%.Original (zh)
如果福利力度到位,中国总和生育率有机会从目前的低于1,爬回1.5;换算成每年新出生的孩子,就是从八百万左右重新回到一千二百万。哪怕不做别的改革,光是发现金补贴,他估计出生人口也能回升两到三成。