Dylan Patel 认为垂直整合目前尚不能带来超大规模客户订单，但随着电力紧缺和供电架构变革，其作用可能上升。

现在判断垂直整合能否成为中国数据中心市场的显著优势还为时过早。目前它让整合型厂商对成本和工期有更强的掌控，但超大规模云厂商选择供应商仍主要看资源和过往业绩。随着电力获取变难、数据中心内部供电系统被重新设计，这一点可能改变。

原文 (en)

It is too early to say whether vertical integration will become a meaningful advantage in China’s datacenter market. For now, it gives integrated players more control over cost and schedule, but hyperscalers still choose vendors mainly on resources and track record. That could change as power becomes harder to secure and the power system inside the datacenter is redesigned.

Dylan Patel 指出能源获取正成为数据中心开发商的卖点，供电架构正转向高压直流，电池取代UPS。

在不同市场，获取能源正成为数据中心开发商所售产品的一部分。其次，从电网接入到机架的供电架构正在被重新设计。在美国，行业正转向更高电压的直流供电，而电池备份单元和储能系统开始取代UPS的作用。

原文 (en)

Across different markets, access to energy is becoming part of what a datacenter developer sells. Second, the power architecture from the grid connection to the rack is being redesigned. In the US, the industry is moving toward higher-voltage DC power, while battery backup units (BBUs) and BESS are starting to take over the role of UPS.

Dylan Patel 指出中国数据中心市场竞争激烈，租金减半、资本开支下降25%，内蒙古电价全球最低之一。

中国数据中心市场竞争激烈。过去五年租金大约减半，至不含电费约每千瓦每月40美元。同期资本开支下降约25%，低于每兆瓦300万美元。内蒙古的综合电价约每千瓦时0.055美元，属全球最低之列。

原文 (en)

China’s datacenter market is highly competitive. Rents have roughly halved over the past five years, to about $40/kW/month excluding power. Capex has fallen about 25% over the same period, to less than $3mm per MW. Power in Inner Mongolia costs about $0.055/kWh all-in, among the lowest in the world.

Dylan Patel 认为谷歌 TPUv7 在智能体推理的每美元性能上已追平或超越 NVIDIA，迫使 NVIDIA 紧急调集工程力量应对。

TPU 在每美元性能上更优或具备竞争力，对 NVIDIA 高层来说是一种不愿接受的新体验。TPU 在 Qwen3.5 397B FP8 上发布首个 AgentX 结果、显示 TPUv7 FP8 甚至能击败 GB300 NVL72 FP4 后，NVIDIA 立即派出由工程师和智能体集群组成的突击队，在中美两地加班到深夜和周末。

原文 (en)

TPUs delivering better performance per dollar or competitive performance per dollar is a new experience that NVIDIA senior leadership is unwilling to accept. As soon as TPU posted its first AgentX result on Qwen3.5 397B FP8 showing that even TPUv7 FP8 could beat GB300 NVL72 FP4, NVIDIA tasked a strike force of human engineers and agent swarms to work 997, late into the night until 2am local time and on weekends, across USA and mainland China.

Dylan Patel 警告称 NVIDIA 内部官僚主义拖慢了对开源社区的响应，是其软件护城河的最大风险之一。

NVIDIA 需要一场大幅削减官僚主义的文化转变。这是 Jensen 必须应对的、对 NVIDIA 护城河最大的风险之一。根据我们和许多客户的经验，NVIDIA 现在对外部建议、git 提交和反馈的响应速度比 AMD、谷歌和亚马逊更慢。

原文 (en)

There needs to be an cultural shift in massively reducing bureaucracy at NVIDIA. This is one of the biggest risks to NVIDIA Moat that Jensen has to tackle. In our experience and many customers experience, Nvidia is now slower moving than AMD, Google, and Amazon to external suggestion, git commits, and feedback.

Dylan Patel 指出 TPUv7 缺乏原生 FP4，在 2027 年一季度 TPUv8 到来前每美元 token 数仍落后于 FP4 GPU。

由于 TPUv7 没有原生 FP4 支持，FP4 GPU 在大多数速度下仍能提供更高的每美元 token 数，要等到 2027 年第一季度带 FP4 支持的 TPUv8。在每用户 100 tok/s 时，GB300 和 GB200 FP4 的每美元 token 数分别是 TPUv7 的 3.6 倍和 3.5 倍。

原文 (en)

FP4 GPUs still deliver more tokens per dollar at most speeds, as TPUv7 has no native FP4 support, and we will need to wait until Q1 2027 for TPUv8 with FP4 support, as tracked in our Accelerator & HBM Model. At 100 tok/s/user, GB300 and GB200 FP4 deliver 3.6x and 3.5x the tokens per dollar of TPUv7.

Dylan Patel 称拥有大量 TPU 的实验室会为 TPU 协同设计模型注意力形状，因此 GPU 优化的 Muse Spark Open 低估了 TPU 的潜力。

注意，拥有大量 TPU 算力的 AI 实验室，如 Anthropic、Google DeepMind 以及即将加入的 OpenAI，通常会协同设计模型，使注意力形状适配 TPU 以避免这一问题。

原文 (en)

Note that AI labs with lots of TPU capacity, such as Anthropic and Google Deepmind and soon OpenAI, typically co-design their models such that the attention shapes would fit nicely on TPUs to avoid this issue.

Dylan Patel 预测 NVIDIA 或能在 FP4 上夺回小幅领先，但在 FP8 上对部分模型无法重回最优。

我们认为只要有足够的智能体集群，NVIDIA 可以在 GB300 NVL72 FP4 对 TPUv7 FP8 上夺回轻微领先，但在 NVIDIA FP8 对 TPUv7 FP8 上，对某些模型而言 NVIDIA 不可能重回最优。

原文 (en)

We do think that with enough agent swarms, NVIDIA could regain a slight performance lead on GB300 NVL72 FP4 vs TPUv7 FP8, but on NVIDIA FP8 versus TPUv7 FP8, we believe that it is not possible for NVIDIA to regain SOTA for certain models.

Dylan Patel 称 SemiAnalysis 预计到2029年底全球AI资本支出将达11万亿美元，其中约7万亿为债务，并提出了谁来买单的问题。

另一个问题是谁来为此买单。我们一直在说的一点是，到2029年底，我们预计全球AI资本支出将达到11万亿美元。

原文 (en)

The other question is sort of who pays for it. So one of the things that we’ve said is by end of 2029 we expect $11 trillion of capex globally on AI.

Dylan Patel 认为 SpaceX 可能已是全球最快的数据中心建设者，甚至超过中国同行，并以 Colossus 2 不到一年新增近 2GW 为例。

我们现在认为，SpaceX 可能是全球建设数据中心最快的公司，甚至快过中国同行。看看 Colossus 2 如何在不到一年内新增近两个 Stargate Abilene（2GW）！

原文 (en)

We now believe that SpaceX may be the fastest datacenter builder in the world, even more so than Chinese peers. Watch how Colossus 2 adds nearly two Stargate Abilenes (2GW) in just under one year!

Patel 称 SpaceX 2027 年约 13GW 的目标规模空前但可行，已识别出超过 9GW 的容量。

SpaceX 甚至将 2027 年的预期上调至约 13GW。这将是任何一家公司在该时间段内建成的最大数据中心容量，大致相当于谷歌 1999 至 2026 年全部数据中心容量，仅用 1.5 年建成。我们认为这是可能的，并且已经识别出超过 9GW 的容量。

原文 (en)

SpaceX has even revised its estimate up to ~13GW in 2027. This would be the largest amount of datacenter capacity ever built by any one company in that timeframe, roughly equivalent to all of Google’s datacenter capacity from 1999-2026 in just 1.5 years. We think it’s possible and have already identified >9GW of capacity.

Patel 指出 SpaceX 将常规新建数据中心的建设周期缩短一半至约 4 到 5 个月，创下规模化纪录。

据我们所知，这将是有史以来规模化建成的最快的全新数据中心。多数公司还在争取 8 到 12 个月的建设周期，SpaceX 已将其缩短一半。

原文 (en)

To our knowledge, this would be the fastest greenfield datacenter ever built at scale. While most are fighting for 8-12-month build times, SpaceX has cut them in half.

Patel 将 SpaceX 的速度归因于顶尖硬件工程能力、每 GW 约 3000 名工人的精简用工，以及特斯拉制造的模块化 MEP 设备。

一个常被忽视的点是，马斯克旗下公司是全球最好的硬件公司之一。我们在上一期通讯中提到，凭借顶尖工程师，他们每 GW 只需约 3000 名工人。不过我们也认为，特斯拉正在生产模块化 MEP 设备，使 SpaceX 能够如此快速地部署。

原文 (en)

One thing often overlooked is that the Elon companies are some of the best hardware companies in the world. We mentioned in our previous newsletter that their labor can run at 3k workers per GW thanks to their top-tier engineers. However, we also believe that Tesla is manufacturing modular MEP equipment, allowing SpaceX to deploy so rapidly.

Patel 认为 Colossus 2 将用约 6GWh 储能配合燃气轮机，弥补涡轮机限制后约 300MW 的电力缺口。

随着储能接近 6GWh，我们认为该站点将协调燃气与储能来提高基础负荷，同时让涡轮机轮流为储能充电。如果数据中心设计得当（且我们的 IT 兆瓦假设正确），这是可行的。

原文 (en)

With the BESS nearing 6GWh, we think the site will orchestrate gas and BESS to increase baseload, while the turbines cycle through charging them. If the datacenters are designed right (and our IT MW assumptions are correct), this could work.

Patel 有中高信心认为 SpaceX 的 TeraFab 芯片厂项目也将配建数据中心，可能对外出租。

最后，我们有中高程度的信心认为 TeraFab 也会配建数据中心。没错，SpaceX 这个 10GW、1 亿平方英尺的芯片晶圆厂项目很可能会有数据中心。

原文 (en)

Lastly, we have medium-high confidence that TeraFab will have a datacenter too. That’s right, the 10GW, 100M sq.ft chip fab venture from SpaceX will likely have a datacenter.

黄仁勋称，英伟达每吉瓦对应的收入从 Hopper 的约 180 亿美元升至 Grace Blackwell 的 250 亿美元和 Vera Rubin 的 400 亿美元，且每代生产力成倍提升。

就 Hopper 而言，每吉瓦约为 180 亿美元；Grace Blackwell 每吉瓦约为 250 亿美元；Vera Rubin 每吉瓦约为 400 亿美元。而且每一代的生产力都有数倍的提升。

原文 (en)

In the case of Hopper, we were at about $18 billion per gigawatt. For Grace Blackwell, we're about $25 billion per gigawatt. And for Vera Rubin, it's about $40 billion per gigawatt. And the productivity is X factors increase in each generation.

黄仁勋表示，客户都在竭力尽快升级到下一代英伟达系统。

因此客户希望尽可能快地抢先升级到下一代产品。

原文 (en)

And so customers want to race to the next generation as fast as they can.

黄仁勋表示 AI 智能体正在改变每家公司的工作方式，能力与安全必须同步发展。

“AI 智能体正在改变每家公司的工作方式，能力与安全必须同步推进。”

原文 (en)

“AI agents are transforming how every company works, and capability and security must advance together,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA.

马斯克表示，特斯拉将在2027年年中前后停产德州工厂的Cybertruck，以腾出产能增产Cybercab。

特斯拉将在明年年中前后逐步停产德州超级工厂的 Cybertruck，为增加 Cybercab 产能腾出空间。

原文 (en)

Tesla will be winding down production of the Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of next year to make room for increased Cybercab production,

马斯克在中期选举后调侃称太空数据中心眼下颇具吸引力，背景是市场担忧数据中心建设监管趋严。

他在另一条帖子中补充说：“眼下在太空建数据中心看起来相当有吸引力。”

原文 (en)

"Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now," he added in another post.

马斯克在中期选举后地面数据中心遭遇反弹之际，在 X 上表示太空数据中心眼下颇具吸引力。

“眼下太空数据中心看起来相当有吸引力，”马斯克周三在 X 上写道。

原文 (en)

"Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now," Musk wrote on X on Wednesday.

马斯克在德州选举结果引发数据中心限制担忧后，在 X 上表示太空数据中心现在颇具吸引力。

“太空数据中心现在看起来相当有吸引力。”马斯克写道，这指向了他的终极抱负。

原文 (en)

“Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now,” Musk wrote, referencing his ultimate ambitions.

马斯克在德州民主党获胜并承诺冻结数据中心审批后，在 X 上表示太空数据中心现在颇具吸引力。

“太空数据中心现在看起来相当有吸引力。”马斯克在选举结果公布后在 X 上写道。

原文 (en)

"Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now," Musk wrote on X after the results.

在民主党赢得中期选举后，马斯克在 X 上表示太空数据中心现在颇具吸引力，暗指可规避地方对 AI 数据中心的限制。

太空数据中心现在看起来相当有吸引力。

原文 (en)

Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now.

Amodei 表示，即便因 Claude 的生物安全防护过于严格而被网友每天嘲笑，他也不愿冒 Claude 被用于造成大规模伤亡的风险。

我宁愿他们嘲笑我，也不愿有一天醒来发现有人用 Claude 杀了很多人。

原文 (en)

I would rather they make fun of me than wake up one day and discover that someone used Claude to kill a bunch of people.

Amon 称高带宽计算（HBC）表现优于投资者日目标，能效约 0.3 皮焦/比特，良率超预期，尤其适合解码负载。

我们对 HBC 的进展非常满意，实际表现好于投资者日所说的目标。设计目标约为每比特 0.5 皮焦，实验室中做到了约 0.3，良率也超出预期。

原文 (en)

We're very happy with the progress we're making on HBC. We're actually doing better than what we said on Investor Day. We had a target on the design to about 0.5 picojoules per bit. We're doing better in the lab. We're doing about 0.3. Yield is exceeding our expectations.

Amon 认为智能手机掌握用户上下文、偏好和权限，是智能体 AI 的关键设备，将推动单机算力含量上升。

智能手机是智能体体验的关键设备，因为它最了解用户，始终随身，掌握用户的上下文、偏好和权限。设备也在演进，以同时支持用户自己的操作和智能体代表用户执行的操作。

原文 (en)

The smartphone is an essential device for agentic experiences, as it's the device that knows people best. It's always with them and has their context, preferences, and permissions. The device is also evolving to simultaneously support what the user is doing and what agents are doing on the user's behalf.

Amon 称授权续约、失去苹果和内存涨价冲击手机市场等不确定性已基本过去，预计 2027 年手机出货持平或下降。

我们结束 2026 财年时，许多压在业务上的不确定性已经过去，具体包括 QTL 授权续约、失去苹果作为客户，以及内存价格对手机行业规模的负面影响。

原文 (en)

We closed fiscal 2026 with many of the uncertainties that have been weighing on our business now behind us. Specifically, QTL license renewals, the loss of Apple as a customer, and the negative impact of memory pricing on the size of the mobile industry.

Amon 对陪审团认定 Arm 违约并不正当竞争表示欣慰，称这是创新与竞争的胜利。

陪审团认定 Arm 违反了与高通长期的架构授权协议，未履行承诺，故意扰乱高通业务，并作为供应商和竞争者从事不正当竞争，我们对此感到欣慰。

原文 (en)

We're gratified that the jury found Arm breached its long-standing architecture license agreement, ALA, with Qualcomm, failed to honor its commitments, intentionally acted to disrupt Qualcomm's business, and engaged in unfair competition both as a supplier and a competitor.

Amon 称 Starlink 5G 订单反映出无线基础设施可借 Open RAN 和 AI 原生突破专用设备模式。

这个行业一直运行在专用设备上。从 Open RAN 到 AI 原生，许多技术趋势为这一领域带来了创新机会。

原文 (en)

The industry has been running on dedicated equipment. I think we have seen a lot of trends of technology ranging from Open RAN to AI native as an opportunity to innovate in this space.

Amon 称高通数据中心业务的制约在于供给而非需求，预计 2027 财年数据中心收入将达 50 亿美元。

首席执行官 Cristiano Amon 表示，数据中心业务面临的制约来自供给而非需求，预计 2027 财年数据中心收入将达到 50 亿美元。

原文 (en)

CEO Cristiano Amon said data center constraints stem from supply, not demand, with data center revenue seen reaching $5 billion in fiscal 2027.

Amon表示高通50亿美元的数据中心投入受限于供给而非需求，若资源更多会投入更多。

我现在就可以告诉你，不管这些市场噪音如何，我认为我们50亿美元的投入并非由需求驱动，而完全取决于供给。如果我有更多资源，我可能会投入超过50亿美元。

原文 (en)

And I'll tell you right now, regardless of all this noise, I think our $5 billion commitment is not demand-driven. It depends entirely on the offer. If I had more resources, I would probably make more than $5 billion .

Amon认为高通的低功耗计算基因使其能帮助数据中心降低总体拥有成本。

我们在数据中心做的事情，对高通这样的公司而言，我们的基因就是低功耗计算。在数据中心里，将需要降低总体拥有成本（TCO）。

原文 (en)

What we do in data centers, if you think about a company like Qualcomm, our DNA is low-power computing. In data centers, there will be a need to reduce the total cost of ownership (TCO).

Amon称高通2029财年150亿美元数据中心目标依托聚焦推理、低功耗低密度的新技术。

当我们考虑2029财年150亿美元的预测时，会有很多新技术推出，我们专注于推理和解码，并尽可能以最低的计算密度和功耗来实现。

原文 (en)

when we think about our $15 billion forecast for FY29, there are a lot of new technologies coming out, and we're focusing on inference, decoding, and trying to do that with the lowest possible compute density and power consumption.

Amon称高通手机业务疲软源于供应受限而非需求不足，供应更多业绩会更好。

“我们没有需求问题，而是供应问题。如果我有更多供应，业绩大概会更好。”

原文 (en)

"We don't have a demand issue; it's a supply issue," CEO Cristiano Amon said. "If I had more supply, I would probably be doing better."

Amon表示2027财年是高通非手机业务收入拐点的起点，数据中心业务将开始放量。

2027财年标志着我们非手机业务收入拐点的开始，包括数据中心业务的放量。

原文 (en)

“Fiscal 2027 marks the start of our non-handset revenue inflection, including the ramp of our Data Center business,”

Amon重申高通在三星下一代Galaxy旗舰芯片中的份额已超过70%。

“当然，”他说。“基准曾是50%，现在已不再是50%，而是超过70%。”

原文 (en)

“Absolutely,” he said. “The baseline was 50 percent. This baseline is no longer 50 percent. It’s north of 70 percent.”

Amon表示数据中心是高通的首要战略重点，将围绕长期客户关系、丰富产品组合和开放软件生态来建设。

数据中心是我们本季度取得重大进展的另一个领域。它是我们最重要的战略优先事项之一，也是我个人投入大量时间的重点，我们围绕长期客户关系、广泛的产品组合和开放的软件生态来打造这项业务。

原文 (en)

Data center is another area where we made considerable progress this quarter. it is 1 of our top strategic priorities and a major focus of my own time, as we build this business around long term customer relationships a broad product portfolio in an open software ecosystem.

Amon称高通高带宽计算技术在实验室中能效超过设计目标，尤其适合解码负载。

我们的设计目标约为每比特0.5皮焦耳，实验室中表现更好，约为0.3。良率超出预期。我们获得大量关注的主要负载是解码，在这方面效率极高。

原文 (en)

We had a target on the design to about 0.5 picojoules per bit. We are doing better in the lab. We are doing about 0.3. Yield is exceeding our expectations. The main workloads that we are getting a lot of traction, it is incredibly, efficient for decode.

Amon认为手机是智能体AI的关键设备，到2028年本地运行千亿参数模型需要端侧算力阶跃式提升。

智能手机是智能体体验的必备设备，因为它最了解用户，始终随身，掌握联系人、偏好和权限。领先的AI公司的目标是到2028年让手机能在本地运行1000亿参数模型并保证全天续航。实现这一目标需要端侧算力性能的阶跃式提升。

原文 (en)

The smartphone is an essential device for agentic experiences as it is the device that knows people best. it is always with them has their contacts, preferences, and permissions. For perspective, leading AI companies are targeting smartphones by 2028 capable of running 100 billion parameter models locally with an all day battery life. Reaching this goal will require a step function change in on device compute performance.

Amon预计光互连行业结构将像射频前端一样重组，高通正与激光器公司探讨合作。

我认为行业结构将会改变，类似射频前端当年发生的变化，这会创造机会。我们已与一些激光器公司展开很有意思的对话，尤其是各种形式的合作和战略合作将会形成。

原文 (en)

I think the structure of the industry is going to change. My analogy is what happened on RF front end. And that creates opportunity. So we have been engaged in very interesting conversations with some of the laser companies, especially as different forms of partnerships and strategic partnerships are going to be formed.

Amon表示高通在三星Galaxy的基准份额已从50%升至70%以上。

回顾过去，我们的基准份额是50%，现在不再是50%，而是超过70%。对于未来几代Galaxy，我们就是这样规划业务的，也建议大家这样规划。

原文 (en)

If you think about our business in the past, the baseline was 50%. This baseline is no longer 50%. it is north of 70%, as we have been doing. When you think about future generations of Galaxy. This is how we plan our business and I encourage all of you to plan the same way.

Amon宣布Starlink Mobile选择高通建设美国全国地面5G网络，2027年开始部署。

我很自豪地宣布，SpaceX选择高通为Starlink Mobile在美国的全国地面5G网络提供技术。根据多年协议，部署将于2027年开始，预计是美国最大的5G部署之一。

原文 (en)

I am very proud to share that StacyX selected Qualcomm to power Starlink Mobile's nationwide terrestrial 5G network in the U.S. Under a multiyear agreement, deployment begins in 2027 and is expected to be 1 of the largest 5G deployments in the United States.

Amon对陪审团认定Arm违约表示欣慰，并称将继续交付从移动到数据中心的Oryon CPU。

陪审团认定Arm违反了与高通长期的架构授权协议，我们对此感到欣慰。这一结果是创新与竞争的胜利。我们将继续专注于开发并交付业界领先的半导体产品，包括从移动到数据中心的Oryon CPU。

原文 (en)

We are gratified that the jury found ARM breached its long standing architecture license agreement ALA with Qualcomm. This outcome is a victory for innovation and competition. And we remain focused on developing and delivering industry leading semiconductor products, including our Oryon CPUs to customers and consumers worldwide from mobile, to data center.

Amon称高通规划假设2027年全球手机出货持平或下降，并已充分计入苹果调制解调器切换影响。

我们的计划假设2027年全球手机出货量持平或下滑。苹果调制解调器转换的时间和形态已完全纳入业务规划，目前已得到充分理解。

原文 (en)

Our plan assumes global handset units will remain flat to down in calendar 2027. The timing and shape of the Apple modem transition is fully incorporated in how we are planning the business and its well understood at this point.

Amon称第五代汽车平台芯片含量是第三代的8倍，增长主要来自份额提升。

对于目前路上的汽车，第五代平台相比第三代平台的芯片含量增加了8倍，算力内容多得多。我们汽车业务的大部分增长来自份额，设计订单管线正转化为收入。

原文 (en)

for cars that you see now on the road that, with Ford third generation platform, the silicon content increase versus the fifth generation is 8x. there is a lot more a lot more compute content. Into the automotive and most of our automotive growth is really share where the design win pipeline translates into revenue.

Amon表示2027财年是高通非手机业务收入拐点的起点，非手机收入预计增长60%以上，并重申50亿美元的数据中心收入目标。

“2027财年标志着我们非手机业务收入拐点的开始，包括数据中心业务的放量。”高通总裁兼CEO Cristiano Amon展望时表示。“预计非手机业务收入将同比增长60%以上，我们重申2027财年数据中心收入目标为50亿美元。”

原文 (en)

“Fiscal 2027 marks the start of our non-handset revenue inflection, including the ramp of our Data Center business,” Qualcomm president and CEO Cristiano Amon said, looking ahead. “Non-handset revenues are projected to grow by more than 60 percent year-over-year, and we are reiterating our fiscal 2027 Data Center revenue target of $5 billion.”

Amon称与SpaceX的Starlink Mobile合作是高通基础设施业务的重大胜利，也是潜力巨大的战略合作的开端。

我们非常自豪。这一新架构为下一代连接和网络智能奠定了基础。这对我们的基础设施业务是一次重大胜利，也是一段潜力巨大的战略合作关系的开端。

原文 (en)

We are very proud. This new architecture establishes a foundation for next-generation connectivity and network intelligence. This is a significant win for our infrastructure business and the beginning of a strategic relationship with tremendous potential.

Amon 称高通手机业务出现环比改善迹象，中国安卓出货量已触底。

首席执行官 Cristiano Amon 表示，公司看到手机业务环比改善的迹象，中国安卓手机出货量已经触底。

原文 (en)

Chief Executive Cristiano Amon said the company was seeing signs of sequential improvement in handsets and that Android shipments in China had bottomed.

Amon 预计高通 2027 财年数据中心收入达 50 亿美元，并已接洽一家全球超大规模云厂商。

Amon 表示，公司预计 2027 财年数据中心收入将达 50 亿美元，并已与一家全球超大规模云厂商展开合作。

原文 (en)

Amon said the company expects 5 billion US dollars of data center revenue in fiscal 2027 and has engaged a global hyperscaler.

Amon称高通手机业务疲软源于供应受限（尤其是存储）而非需求不足，更多供应有助改善业绩。

我们不存在需求问题，而是供应问题。

原文 (en)

We don't have a demand issue; it's a supply issue.

Amon预计高通AI数据中心业务在2027财年将达到50亿美元收入。

CEO Cristiano Amon预计该业务在2027财年将带来50亿美元收入。

原文 (en)

CEO Cristiano Amon expects this business to generate USD 5 billion in fiscal 2027.

Amon 称高通业绩疲软源于供应受限而非需求不足，若供应更充足，情况会更好。

Cristiano Amon 表示：“需求没有问题，问题出在供应上。如果我们有更多供应，情况会好得多。”

原文 (en)

"There is no problem with demand, there is a problem with supply," Chief Executive Cristiano Amon said. "If we had more supply, the situation would have been better."

Amon称与SpaceX的Starlink Mobile合作是高通基础设施业务的重大胜利，也是潜力巨大的战略合作的开端。

我们非常自豪。这一新架构为下一代连接和网络智能奠定了基础。这是我们基础设施业务的一次重大胜利，也是一段潜力巨大的战略合作关系的开端。

原文 (en)

We are very proud,” said CEO Cristiano Amon of the SpaceX deal. “This new architecture establishes a foundation for next-generation connectivity and network intelligence. This is a significant win for our infrastructure business and the beginning of a strategic relationship with tremendous potential.

苏姿丰表示随着应用增多，市场对算力的需求持续增长。

人们需要更多算力来支撑所有这些应用。

原文 (en)

People need more computing to power all these applications.

苏姿丰称市场在中期选举后的抛售反应是短视的，表达了对AMD长期前景的信心。

Lisa Su 表示市场“短视”。

原文 (en)

Lisa Su said the market is “short-sighted.”

苏姿丰称需求高于供应，供应能力是 AMD 2027年增长指引的主要风险。

苏姿丰表示需求高于供应，因此如果 AMD 无法足够快地生产芯片，2027年的增长可能达不到指引。

原文 (en)

Su said demand is higher than supply, so if AMD can't build chips fast enough, 2027 growth could fall short of its guide.

苏姿丰认为市场对AI需求可持续性的担忧有些短视，并称AMD业务没有出现谨慎迹象。

我认为市场有时会有点短视。事情就是这样。

原文 (en)

I think the market can sometimes be a little bit short-sighted. It is what it is.

苏姿丰认为算力等同于智能，因此以三到五年的长期视角提前投资是正确策略。

我着眼于长期：我深信算力在很多方面等同于智能。你拥有的算力越多，公司就越智能，能解决的问题越多，业务加速得越快。如果你相信这一基础，那么提前投资就是正确的，因为我们总是着眼长期投资，长期指三到五年甚至更久。

原文 (en)

What I look at is in the long term, if you believe, which I do, I believe very deeply that computing, in many ways, equates to intelligence. So the more compute you have, the more intelligent your company is, the more problems you're going to be able to solve, the more you're going to accelerate your business. If you believe that foundation, then investing ahead of the curve is the right thing to do because we're always investing for the long term — long term being three to five years and beyond.

苏姿丰预计AI和超级智能将成为生活与业务各方面不可或缺的部分，并相信生态系统的投资反映了这一需求。

展望未来，我看到AI和超级智能对我们生活和业务的方方面面越来越不可或缺。所以我相信这一需求，也坚信整个生态系统中的许多投资也看到了同样的趋势。

原文 (en)

Over the horizon, I see AI and super intelligence becoming more and more essential to every aspect of our lives and every aspect of our business. So I believe in this demand, and I very much believe that many of the investments that are being made throughout the ecosystem are also seeing some of these same trends.

苏姿丰表示 AI 采用速度极快，使原本静态的年度计划变得动态，这推动了 AMD 的需求超预期。

随着 AI 的推进和整个行业对 AI 的采用，过去相当静态的计划现在变得非常动态。你很难意识到采用曲线的速度有多快。

原文 (en)

with AI and the progress that we're making through AI adoption, uh, throughout the industry, uh, what we're seeing is what used to be, let's call it, you know, fairly static plans, are now actually becoming pretty dynamic. Um, you're not realizing how fast the adoption curve is going.

苏姿丰称 AMD 数据中心业务第四季度环比增长 50%，明年目标翻倍以上，并强调 AMD 是数据中心优先的公司。

能够说我的数据中心业务将从第三季度到第四季度环比增长 50%，这是一次大幅跃升，证明了计算在当今行业中的重要性，我们希望明年让业务翻倍甚至更多。我们是一家数据中心优先的公司。

原文 (en)

being able to say that my data center business is going to grow 50% sequentially from Q3 to Q4, uh it's a big step up and it's a a testament to how important computing is um in the industry today and you know, we're looking to double the business, more than double the business as we go into next year. Uh we are a data center first company

苏姿丰认为市场对 AI 投入的担忧过于短视，并称算力等同于智能，因此应提前投资。

我认为市场有时会有些短视。我着眼于长期，我深信计算在很多方面等同于智能，算力越多就越智能。

原文 (en)

I think the market can sometimes be a little bit short-sighted, uh and look, it it is what it is. Um, what I look at is in the long term, if you believe, which I do. I believe, uh, very, you know, deeply that computing in many ways equates to intelligence. So the more compute you have, the more intelligent you are

苏姿丰相信 AI 与超级智能将成为生活和商业各方面的必需品，支撑持续需求和生态投资。

放眼未来，我看到 AI 和超级智能对我们生活和业务的每个方面都越来越重要。所以我相信这种需求，也相信整个生态系统中的许多投资都看到了同样的趋势。

原文 (en)

over the horizon, I see um AI and super intelligence becoming more and more essential to every aspect of our lives and every aspect of our business. So I believe in this demand and I very much believe that uh you know, many of the investments that are being made throughout the ecosystem are also seeing some of these, you know, same trends.

苏姿丰表示，AMD 明年服务器 CPU 业务将大约翻倍，数据中心 AI 业务增速将远超一倍。

AMD CEO 苏姿丰补充称，公司服务器 CPU 业务明年将大约翻倍，由出货量增加和核心数提升驱动，而数据中心 AI 业务将“增长远超一倍”。

原文 (en)

CEO Lisa Su added that its server CPU business will about double, driven by higher unit shipments and higher core counts, while its data center AI business will "significantly more than double."

苏姿丰表示，在中期选举中数据中心遭到抵制后，科技行业需要向每个承载数据中心的社区清晰说明其价值，让所有人都从 AI 中受益。

归根结底，我们需要确保每个人都能从 AI 中获益。我确实认为，这是科技行业认识到的一个机会：我们必须让每一个将承载数据中心的当地社区都清楚看到其价值主张，我相信我们能做到。

原文 (en)

At the end of the day, what we need to do is ensure that everybody wins from AI. I do think this is an opportunity for us as a tech industry to realize that we need to make sure that the value proposition is clear to every local community that is going to host a data center, and I believe we can do that.

苏姿丰表示算力需求迫切，订单储备强劲，需求超过供给。

我们正处于对算力需求极为迫切的阶段，订单储备非常强劲，实际上需求高于供给。

原文 (en)

we are in a place Jim where I think there is a um intense need for more compute and when we look at that uh we are seeing a very strong order pipeline. We are actually seeing the uh demand being higher than supply

苏姿丰称 AMD 已向 Anthropic、OpenAI、微软、甲骨文、Meta 等头部客户交付首批机架，客户反馈性能出色。

我们已经向包括 Anthropic、OpenAI、微软、甲骨文和 Meta 在内的主要客户交付了首批机架，这些客户对我们最新产品的性能非常满意。

原文 (en)

we have actually landed our first racks at our top customers including uh anthropic openai Microsoft Oracle Meta and these customers are seeing great performance out of our newest products.

苏姿丰预计 AMD 明年业务增长超过80%，达到长期模型的两倍以上。

我们预计明年业务增长超过80%，这是非常显著的数字，是我们长期模型的两倍以上。

原文 (en)

We see our business growing over 80% uh next year which is a very significant number. It's over double of our long-term model

苏姿丰认为 AI 采用才刚起步，需要 CPU、GPU 和各类加速器协同，这正是 AMD 的强项。

我们正处于采用周期的最初阶段，人们看到了AI和超级智能能带我们走多远，为此需要各种算力：CPU、GPU以及各类加速器协同，这正是我们的专长。

原文 (en)

we're at the very beginning of the adoption cycle where people are seeing where you know AI and super intelligence can really take us and for that you need all kinds of compute. You need CPUs, you need GPUs, uh you need all of these accelerators to come together and this is what we specialize in.

苏姿丰表示，AMD 正与最大客户就 MI500、MI600 及更后续的加速器产品展开非常积极的讨论。

我们正与最大的客户就 MI500、MI600 及后续产品进行非常积极的沟通。

原文 (en)

We’re in very active dialogs with our largest customers on MI500 and MI600 and beyond.

苏姿丰称，凭借领先产品组合及深厚的客户与供应链关系，AMD 有信心未来几年维持强劲营收增长并提升盈利能力。

凭借我们领先的产品组合以及深厚的客户和供应链关系，我们有信心在未来几年保持非常强劲的营收增长和不断提升的盈利能力。

原文 (en)

With our leadership product portfolio and deep customer and supply chain relationships, we are confident in our ability to sustain very strong revenue growth and expanding profitability over the coming years.

苏姿丰表示 Instinct 和 EPYC 需求持续增强，随着 Helios 与 Venice 放量预计第四季度增长加速，并有信心未来几年保持强劲增长和盈利提升。

我们 Instinct 和 EPYC 产品的需求持续增强，随着 Helios 和“Venice”产能爬坡，我们预计第四季度增长将进一步加速。凭借领先的产品组合以及深厚的客户和供应链关系，我们有信心在未来几年保持非常强劲的营收增长和不断提升的盈利能力。

原文 (en)

Demand for our Instinct and EPYC products continued to strengthen, and we expect growth to accelerate further in the fourth quarter as we scale Helios and 'Venice' production. With our leadership product portfolio and deep customer and supply chain relationships, we are confident in our ability to sustain very strong revenue growth and expanding profitability over the coming years.

苏姿丰表示，内存和零部件成本上升拖累需求，导致本季度后期PC终端销售放缓。

本季度后期PC终端销售放缓，因为更高的内存和零部件成本拖累了需求。

原文 (en)

PC sell-through slowed late in the quarter as higher memory and component costs weighed on demand.

苏姿丰称AMD的规划假设是2027年PC市场将出现两位数下滑。

我们对2027年的规划假设是，市场将出现两位数百分比的下滑。

原文 (en)

Our planning assumption for 2027 is that the market will be double-digit percentage down.

苏姿丰称智能体正成为云端 CPU 的下一个杀手级应用，推动 EPYC 需求大幅增长。

云服务商本季度为个人和企业智能体新增了大量 EPYC 算力，智能体正迅速成为云端 CPU 的下一个杀手级应用。Meta 的 Muse 和 OpenAI 的 Dots 显示个人智能体增长之快，前 6 周就有超过 1000 万人激活了 Muse 智能体。

原文 (en)

Cloud providers also added significant EPYC capacity in the quarter for personal and enterprise agents, which are quickly becoming the next killer app for CPUs in the cloud. Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots illustrate how quickly personal agents are growing with more than 10 million people activating Muse agents in the first 6 weeks.

苏姿丰上调 2027 年预期：服务器收入翻倍，数据中心 AI 增速更快，数据中心占比超 80%。

我们现在预计 2027 年服务器收入将同比翻倍，数据中心 AI 收入的增速将快于 90 天前的预测。因此，预计 2027 年数据中心将占总收入 80% 以上，并带动大部分收入和利润增长。

原文 (en)

We now expect server revenue to double year-over-year in 2027 and data center AI revenue to grow even faster than we projected 90 days ago. As a result, we expect data center to be more than 80% of our total revenue in 2027 and to drive the majority of our revenue and earnings growth.

苏姿丰承认需求高于供给，并称正与供应链伙伴合作扩大产能。

需求确实高于供给。我们会继续与供应链伙伴合作增加供给，鉴于我们在整个生态中的稳固关系，我相信有很好的机会做到这一点。

原文 (en)

It is true that demand is higher than supply. So we continue to work with our supply chain partners to increase supply. And I do believe that there is a good opportunity for us to do that, just given the strong relationships we have throughout the ecosystem.

苏姿丰警告零部件涨价将冲击消费级 PC，2027 年按市场两位数下滑规划。

我们的看法是，零部件价格上涨会影响整机定价，消费市场对此会更敏感。因此我们 2027 年的规划假设是 PC 市场出现两位数百分比下滑。

原文 (en)

Our view is this is one of those times when component prices go up, it affects overall system pricing. One would expect the consumer markets to be more sensitive to that. And so our planning assumption for 2027 is that the market will be double-digit percentage down.

苏姿丰称 Helios 的总拥有成本优势是客户选择 AMD 而非自研 ASIC 的关键。

我们对 Helios 在性能和总拥有成本方面的定位非常有信心，这从根本上是决定未来部署规模的最重要因素。

原文 (en)

we feel extremely good about where we're positioned in terms of our performance and our total cost of ownership that we're delivering with Helios. That is fundamentally the most important factor when we think about sort of deployment scale and deployments going forward.

苏姿丰称 HBM 及零部件成本存在通胀，AMD 正与客户协商分担成本。

其他零部件成本也面临通胀压力，因为整个供应链投入了更多资本开支。我们也在与客户合作，确保这些成本在未来得到分担。

原文 (en)

other component costs are also seeing some inflationary pressures in the sense of as there is more CapEx that's put into the overall supply chain environment. We are also working with our customers to include -- to ensure that those costs are shared as we go forward.

苏姿丰表示 AMD 目标是通过 Helios、MI500 和 MI600 在前沿实验室和云厂商的算力需求中占更大份额。

我们的目标是成为最大客户（前沿实验室和超大规模云厂商）非常重要的算力供应商，并在其算力需求中占据越来越大的份额。从我们所见，需求还在持续上升。

原文 (en)

Our aspirations are to be a very significant compute supplier to our largest customers, both frontier labs as well as hyperscalers. And our aspirations are to continue to have a larger and larger piece of their compute needs. And from everything that we see, demand continues to go up.

苏姿丰表示，AMD预计数据中心服务器CPU收入将在2027年翻倍。

AMD预计其数据中心服务器CPU的收入将在2027年翻倍。

原文 (en)

it expects revenue from its data-center server central processing units to double in 2027

奥特曼在 X 上澄清，称他希望人们想装多少内存就装多少，并表示自己此前在播客中关于内存短缺的言论被断章取义。

我其实确实希望全世界都有大量内存，也希望人们想往自己的电脑里装多少就装多少。

原文 (en)

I actually do want the world to have tons of memory and people to put as much as they want in their computers

奥特曼表示人类必须始终掌控未来，OpenAI 反对让人类沦为只做 AI 系统认为值得奖励之事的角色。

人类应当始终掌控未来。OpenAI 反对这样一种观点：让人们沦为只做“AI 系统认为值得奖励的人类行为”的角色是可以接受的。

原文 (en)

People should always be in control of the future. OpenAI is against the notion that it would be acceptable for people to be relegated to a role of doing things that ‘AI systems think makes sense to reward in humans.’

奥特曼认为公众不应把未来的控制权交给超级智能，这一要求最终应当约束 AI 进展。

不应把未来的控制权让给超级智能，而这一要求最终应当约束 AI 的发展进度。

原文 (en)

should not cede control of the future to superintelligence, and that requirement should ultimately constrain AI progress

Altman 告诉员工，如果 AI 今年出现明显的严重问题，生物领域很可能是源头。

“如果今年 AI 出现明显的严重问题，我认为生物领域是个合理的押注。”

原文 (en)

“If something goes visibly really wrong for AI this year, I think bio would be a reasonable bet.”

Sam Altman 表示希望大家拥有充足的内存，并呼吁扩大建设，以应对严重的 DRAM 短缺。

我希望你们拥有足够多的内存，让我们建造更多（产能）。

原文 (en)

i want you to have so much ram lets build more

奥特曼表示他希望全世界拥有充足的内存，此前关于内存的言论被断章取义，并称自己长期呼吁扩大内存产能。

我确实希望全世界都拥有大量内存，让人们想往电脑里装多少就装多少；而这番话被断章取义，真的很烦人。我很久以来一直在呼吁全球扩大内存产能。

原文 (en)

i actually do want the world to have tons of memory and people to put as much as they want in their computers, and it is fucking annoying that this was taken out of context. i have been arguing for the world to ramp up memory production for a long time.

奥尔特曼称能源是OpenAI乃至AI行业面临的最大挑战。

被问及最大的挑战是什么时，奥尔特曼只用一个词回答：“能源。”

原文 (en)

Asked to identify his biggest challenge, Altman answered with a single word: "Energy."

Fouquet表示客户已有意订购2029至2030年设备，ASML预计2027至2028年计划产能将低于客户需求。

行政總裁Christophe Fouquet表示，客戶已表達對訂購2029與2030年設備的興趣。事實上，ASML現預期其2027與2028年計劃產能將低於客戶需求。

Haas称星际之门项目没有退缩，仍强劲推进，算力需求超过供给。

完全没有。星际之门计划仍在强劲推进。但数据中心很难建，需要大量人力、审批、基础设施、材料、内存、晶圆和芯片。目前我们看到算力需求超过供给。

原文 (en)

No, not at all. I mean the start the Stargate initiative continues in a very, very strong way. Uh, but data centers are hard to build. Uh, there's a lot of people that are required, uh, there's permitting, infrastructure, uh materials, memory, wafers, chips. Uh and right now, what we're seeing, and I think you've heard this from most of the CEOs you've talked to, uh demand uh for compute exceeds supply.

Haas称Arm AGI CPU订单已超10亿美元，并有望达到20亿美元，由智能体工作负载需求推动。

我们三月谈到Arm AGI CPU时，说的是十亿美元订单并希望更多。现在我们不仅超过了这个数字，还看到了20亿美元的前景。这主要由受CPU驱动的智能体工作负载需求推动。

原文 (en)

when we talked about the arm AGI CPU back in March, uh, we talked about a billion dollars of orders and uh, and hoping for more. And then incrementally, we've not only exceeded that $1 billion number, but now we have line of sight to two billion dollars. And that's really driven by demand for agentic workloads, which are CPU bound, CPU driven.

Haas预测明年Arm数据中心业务将超过智能手机业务。

明年，我们包括AGI CPU在内的数据中心业务将超过智能手机业务。几年前没人认为这可能。

原文 (en)

next year, our data center business including our AGI CPU, will be bigger than our business for smartphones. And people didn't think that was possible a few years ago.

Haas对太空数据中心持怀疑态度，认为五年内不太可能，十年左右在电力成为主要约束时才可能出现。

我认为两年内会有太空数据中心吗？不会。三年？不会。五年，可能也不会。十年，也许。

原文 (en)

Uh do I think we'll see data centers in space in two years? No. Three years? No. Five years, probably not. 10 years, maybe so.

Rene Haas认为近期科技股抛售是中期选举后的短视行为，忽视了AI巨大的长期经济潜力。

哈斯表示，近期科技股抛售反映了美国中期选举之后的短视思维。在他看来，这种想法忽视了人工智能巨大的长期经济潜力。

原文 (en)

Haas said the recent tech selloff reflects short-term thinking that follows the US midterm elections. In his view, that thinking overlooks the large long-term economic potential of artificial intelligence.

Haas 认为中期选举后的科技股抛售是短视之举，忽视了 AI 对经济的长期影响。

Haas 在 CNBC 上说：“选举期间出现的短期冲击，以及人们谈论的支出等等……在我看来，这是非常非常短视的想法。”

原文 (en)

"The short-term blitz that happened in terms of the election, and people talking about spending, etc., etc.," Haas says on CNBC. "To me, I look at that as very, very short-term thinking."

Haas 称智能商品化几乎必然带动全经济体的 GDP 增长。

他表示，智能作为一种商品，几乎必然会推动整个经济的 GDP 增长。

原文 (en)

He says intelligence as a commodity is near-certain to drive GDP growth across the economy.

Haas 称 Arm 有望在年底达到 60% 的数据中心市场份额，新 CPU 将受益于 AI 智能体普及，Meta 为主要客户。

Haas 表示公司第二季度创下纪录，并有望在年底时占据数据中心市场 60% 的份额。他说，公司新的 CPU 产品应受益于 Meta 的 Muse 等 AI 智能体日益普及，并称 Meta 是该 CPU 的主要客户。

原文 (en)

Haas says the company posted a record second quarter and is poised to exit the year with a 60% market share in the data-center market. The company's new CPU offering should benefit from growing adoption of AI agents like Meta's Muse, he says, adding that Meta is Arm's chief customer for the CPU.

Haas称Arm对新款Arm AGI CPU明年贡献20亿美元收入非常有信心，数据中心业务将超过智能手机业务。

我们现在非常有信心，明年仅这款产品就能带来20亿美元收入，其结果是Arm的数据中心业务将超过智能手机业务。

原文 (en)

we now have very high confidence in reaching $2 billion in revenue. Just from this product next year, and the result of this will be that the data center business for Arm will become bigger than smartphones.

Haas称Arm数据中心份额从2024年的15%升至2025年的50%，预计年底达到60%。

我们在数据中心获得了显著的市场份额：2024年为15%，2025年为50%，我们认为到今年底将达到60%。

原文 (en)

We have gained significant market share in data centers. We had 15% in 2024. 50% in 2025. We think we will reach 60% by the end of this year.

Haas认为选举和支出的短期波动是短视的，智能商品化长期将推动GDP大幅增长。

从长远来看，很难否认作为一种商品的智能将为所有行业带来巨大的GDP增长。

原文 (en)

In the long term, it is hard to deny that intelligence as a commodity will provide huge GDP growth across all sectors.

Haas认为智能体AI负载依赖CPU，Arm节能处理器非常适合，Meta将是重要客户。

当所有这些智能体需要规划、跟踪、做各种检查、判断要做什么时，这些token化工作都是处理器的工作。Arm的处理器因为极其节能，非常适合这类任务。

原文 (en)

When all these agents have to plan, track, do all sorts of checks, determine what needs to be done, all this tokenization work is work for the processor. The Arm Aegis processor, because it is extremely energy efficient, is great for this type of task.

Haas表示，在供应和客户结构改善的支持下，Arm AGI CPU在2027-2028财年实现最高20亿美元收入的信心增强。

过去90天，我们对Arm AGI CPU在2027和2028财年实现最高20亿美元收入的信心有所增强，这得益于更多的供应和客户结构。

原文 (en)

Our confidence in achieving up to $2 billion of revenue in Arm AGI CPU across fiscal 2027 and 2028 has increased over the last 90 days, supported by additional supply and customer mix.

Haas预计，受各大云厂商自研CPU和英伟达平台放量推动，Arm在头部超大规模云厂商中的份额到2026年底将超过60%。

基于Google Axion、AWS Graviton、微软Cobalt和英伟达平台的预期放量，我们现在预计该份额到2026年底将超过60%。

原文 (en)

Based upon expected ramps across Google Axion, AWS Graviton, Microsoft Cobalt, and NVIDIA platforms, we now expect that share to exceed 60% by the end of calendar 2026.

Haas认为智能体AI工作负载受CPU限制，将推动更高核心数和更多CPU需求，对Arm有利。

显而易见，AI任务中的智能体需求受CPU限制，运行的智能体工作负载越多，就需要越多CPU。我认为这最终会推动更高核心数的设备，这对我们非常有利。

原文 (en)

What is obvious is that the agentic demands on AI jobs are CPU-bound, and the more agentic workloads that run, that is going to need more CPUs. I think that's what's going to end up driving these higher core count devices, which I think will be very good for us

Haas称Arm的高能效算力有助于缓解预计达38吉瓦的数据中心电力缺口。

摩根士丹利预测到2028年全球数据中心电力缺口达38吉瓦。Arm通过在现有电力下提供更多有效算力，帮助客户应对这一限制。

原文 (en)

Morgan Stanley projects a 38 GW global data center power shortfall through 2028. Arm is helping customers address this constraint by delivering more useful compute from the power already available.

Haas警告行业供应将趋紧，并称Arm正努力保障供应以应对庞大需求。

我认为整个行业的供应将会紧张，我们会非常努力地确保满足扩大需求所需的供应，因为我们认为需求非常非常大。

原文 (en)

I think supply for the industry is going to be tight, and as Jason mentioned, we'll talk a bit more about our future outlook in upcoming quarters. But we are going to be working very, very hard to secure the supply that we need for the expanded demand because we think it's very, very, very large.

Haas指出内存价格上涨，但认为更大、核心数更高的芯片有提价空间。

自从我们发布Arm AGI CPU以来，内存价格显然大幅上涨。……我认为可以说，对于更大、核心数更高的芯片，我们可能有一定的定价弹性可用。

原文 (en)

memory pricing has obviously increased a lot since we announced the Arm AGI CPU. ... I think it is fair to say that there's probably some pricing elasticity that we could potentially exercise on these larger chips and the chips that have higher core counts.

Haas称CPU市场远大于600亿美元的共识，2030年可达1000亿美元，甚至2000亿美元以上。

三月Arm Everywhere活动时，主流观点认为该市场规模约600亿美元且增长有限。我们计算后看法不同，提出2030年达到1000亿美元。后来有人上调了这一数字，我想Lisa甚至说过2000亿美元以上。

原文 (en)

when we did the Arm Everywhere day in March, the conventional wisdom was the market was a $60 billion market and was not going to be growing all that much. When we did our calculations, we felt differently, and we talked about a number that day of $100 billion by 2030. I think that number has been increased by various folks. I think Lisa may have even said $200 billion or more.

Haas预计，随着加速器头节点CPU从x86转向Arm，数据中心版税将在未来数年三位数增长。

谷歌已宣布将x86转换为连接TPU第8代的Axion。正如Jason所说，这就是我们对数据中心特许权使用费未来数年三位数增长高度有信心的原因。

原文 (en)

Google has already announced the conversion of x86 to Axion, connecting to TPU version 8. To Jason's point, this is why we have a high degree of confidence on data center royalties growing triple digits over the next number of years.

Haas称后续芯片迭代节奏约18到24个月，Arm以机架系统性能为设计目标，并关注网络和I/O。

这个市场的量产爬坡节奏大约是18到24个月。……我们在开发这些产品时，考虑的是机架系统性能。

原文 (en)

you can think about this market goes at about an 18- to 24-month cadence in terms of production ramps. ... When we think about developing these products, we're thinking about rack system performance.

Haas 预计 Arm 自研 CPU 在 2027 和 2028 财年销售额达 20 亿美元，数据中心业务占比将持续提升。

CEO Rene Haas 表示，公司预计在 2027 和 2028 财年自研 CPU 销售额将达到 20 亿美元，并强调数据中心业务在营收中的占比将不断上升。

原文 (en)

Chief Executive Rene Haas said the company expects $2 billion in sales of its own CPUs in fiscal 2027 and 2028, stressing that the data center business will account for a growing share of revenue.

Rene Haas表示，Arm看到数据中心相关的各类技术需求大幅攀升。

我们看到围绕数据中心领域的所有技术都出现了巨大的需求增长。

原文 (en)

We’re just seeing huge pickup for all technology around the datacentre space,

Haas表示，Arm已与台积电等供应商锁定产能，认为2027-2028财年销售20亿美元AGI CPU的目标非常可行。

我们认为20亿美元的目标现在非常有望实现。

原文 (en)

We think the two (billion) is now very achievable,

Haas 表示 Arm 受供应限制，供应增加就能做更多，并对实现目标充满信心。

“如果我们有更多供应，就能做得更多。我们对实现这一目标非常有信心。”

原文 (en)

Arm Chief Executive Rene Haas said: "If we had more supply, we could do more. We feel strongly confident about achieving that goal."

Rene Haas（与财务长 Jason Child 联名）称，AI 带动前所未有的算力需求，Arm 的 IP 业务和以 Arm AGI CPU 为代表的新芯片业务均快速增长。

AI 正在推动云、设备和自主系统对算力产生前所未有的需求，而 Arm 是首选的计算平台。我们的业务现在由两个领域驱动，两者都在快速增长：IP 业务（合作伙伴加大对 Arm 技术的投入并部署创纪录数量的基于 Arm 的芯片），以及我们新的芯片业务（对 Arm AGI CPU 的需求极为强劲）。

原文 (en)

AI is driving unprecedented demand for compute across the cloud, devices and autonomous systems, with Arm being the compute platform of choice. Our business is now driven by two areas, both of which are showing rapid growth: The IP business, where partners increase their investment in Arm technology and deploy record numbers of Arm-based silicon, and our new silicon business, where demand for Arm AGI CPU is extremely strong,

Arm 高管称其在数据中心持续获得份额，受性能和能效需求推动，头部超大规模云厂商中的服务器份额从 2024 年的 15% 升至 2025 年的 50% 以上。

随着 AI 基础设施规模扩大，对性能和能效的需求不断增长，Arm 在数据中心持续获得份额。数据中心授权费同比翻倍，顶级超大规模云厂商中基于 Arm 的服务器市场份额增长逾两倍，从 2024 年的 15% 升至 2025 年的 50% 以上。

原文 (en)

Arm continues to gain share across the data center, driven by growing demand for performance and power efficiency as AI infrastructure scales. Data center royalties doubled year over year, and Arm-based server market share at the top hyperscalers more than tripled—from 15% in calendar 2024 to more than 50% in calendar 2025,

Arm 高管预计，基于 Google、AWS、微软和英伟达平台的放量，其在头部云厂商中的服务器份额到 2026 年底将超过 60%。

基于 Google Axion、AWS Graviton、Microsoft Cobalt 和 NVIDIA 平台当前的放量情况，我们预计该份额到 2026 年底将超过 60%。

原文 (en)

Based on current ramps across Google Axion, AWS Graviton, Microsoft Cobalt, and NVIDIA platforms, we expect that share to exceed 60% by the end of calendar 2026,

Prince 预计智能体时代的微支付商业模式（Act 4）十年后将成为 Cloudflare 最大业务。

我不确定它多久会成为主要收入来源，但放眼十年后，我想这会成为 Cloudflare 业务最大的部分。

原文 (en)

I don't know exactly how long it will be before it turns into major sources of revenue, but if you look out in the more distant horizon, if you look 10 years out, I would imagine that this becomes the largest part of Cloudflare's business.

Prince 认为智能体流量需要大量基础设施，必须向内容提供者付费，不能免费搭车。

如果智能体流量将是人类的1000倍，就需要更多带宽、服务器和能源，必须有人买单，不能让所有智能体免费搭车。

原文 (en)

if agents are going to be 1,000 times human traffic online, that's going to require more bandwidth, that's going to require more servers, that's going to require more things to actually power it, and someone has to pay for it. It can't be a free ride for all the agents that are out there.

Prince 称 AI 在度量类职能上优于人类，因此 Cloudflare 精简组织并增加builder和销售。

AI 极其擅长度量类工作，在许多情况下比人类做得更好。AI 有偏差，但这种偏差与组织其他部分不相关。

原文 (en)

AI is incredibly good at measuring things. And we have found across our business that in many cases, it's better than what humans can do. AI has bias, but the bias is not correlated to the rest of the organization, unlike what everything else has done.

Prince 表示 Cloudflare 已与几乎所有主要前沿 AI 实验室及寻找软件漏洞的安全公司合作。

我们已与几乎所有主要的前沿 AI 实验室和寻找现有软件漏洞的安全公司建立了合作。

原文 (en)

We've partnered with nearly every major frontier AI lab and security company searching for flaws in existing software.

Prince 表示面向智能体互联网的新商业模式产品线首次产生收入，十年内可能成为最大业务。

第四幕是帮助定义新互联网商业模式的产品线，本季度首次确认收入：按抓取付费、微支付，以及智能体披露意图以换取更低费率。与 OpenAI 的合作提供页面变更通知，帮助爬虫降低成本。十年后，这项业务可能成为我们最大的业务板块。

原文 (en)

Act 4—A product line helping define new internet business models—recognized revenue for the first time this quarter: pay-per-crawl, micropayments, and agent disclosure of intent for lower fees. Collaboration with OpenAI provides page change notifications, helping crawlers reduce costs. A decade from now, this business could become our largest segment.

Prince 称 AI 智能体低成本完成衡量类工作，公司将多招建设者和销售，年底人数超过裁员前。

AI 擅长“衡量”类任务，例如 IR 团队的 Heather 用智能体完成了过去整个团队才能完成的财报材料，token 成本不到几百美元。我们正转向多招建设者和销售，年底总人数将超过裁员前水平。

原文 (en)

AI excels at "measurement"-type tasks—for example, Heather from the IR team used an agent to complete the entire team’s previous earnings materials, with token costs under a few hundred dollars. We’re shifting toward hiring more builders and sellers, and by year-end, our total headcount will exceed what it was before the layoffs.

Matthew Prince 表示 Cloudflare 已为 AI 驱动的互联网打造了开发平台，年化收入突破30亿美元，第三季度收入同比增长39%。

我们的年化收入突破了30亿美元，季度收入为7.82亿美元，同比增长39%。

原文 (en)

We crossed $3 billion in annualized revenue with revenue of $782 million, up 39% year over year,

Matthew Prince 表示，Cloudflare 正看到互联网为适应 AI 驱动的机器对机器流量而被根本性重写。

我们正在看到互联网为机器对机器流量进行根本性的重写。

原文 (en)

we are seeing a fundamental rewrite of the Internet for machine-to-machine traffic.

周鸿祎提醒，长半衰期的基础原理和判断力不能外包给AI，否则无法识别AI的错误。

长半衰期的基础原理和判断力不能外包给AI，否则无法识别AI的错误。

周鸿祎认为公司核心竞争力可能不再只看员工数量，而看内部有多少AI参与真实工作。

公司核心竞争力可能不再只看员工数量，而看内部有多少AI在参与真实工作。

周鸿祎认为企业将从训练转向推理应用，推理算力需求短期内将百倍级增长并超越训练算力。

企业不再频繁从头训练大模型，而是更多通过推理应用直接调用AI解决实际问题，这一转变会推动推理算力需求呈现短期百倍级增长，规模和增速都将超越训练算力。

周鸿祎预判AI芯片市场将转为双轨格局，训练芯片由国际厂商主导，推理芯片多厂商参与且ASIC快速渗透。

周鸿祎判断，AI芯片市场会从单极格局转向双轨结构：高端训练芯片仍由国际厂商主导，而推理芯片领域会出现多厂商共同参与的局面。专用推理芯片（ASIC）凭借成本优势，会在各类细分场景快速渗透。

周鸿祎称推理算力对芯片要求较宽松，为国内芯片产业提供差异化发展机会。

推理算力对芯片的要求相对宽松，功耗更低、成本更可控，这为国内芯片产业提供了差异化发展的机会。

周鸿祎认为智能体成为AI落地主角，推理算力需求爆发并全面超越训练算力。

一是智能体成为AI落地主角，智能体应用走进千行百业，深入生产和业务系统，行业竞争焦点从参数比拼转向落地能力比拼。二是推理算力需求爆发，人们使用智能体完成复杂行业任务或需求时，需要多次调用大模型进行推理，算力消耗巨大，推理算力使用规模、增速全面超越大模型训练所需算力。

周鸿祎称智能体体系让10人小队三周完成过去百人团队半年的研发。

使用我们打造的守规矩、守纪律、能保持确定性的智能体体系，一个10人小队用三周时间开发了过去100人团队需半年才能生产的产品，并实现了编码、测试、交付流程的全自动化。

周鸿祎认为程序员不会被淘汰，而是转向给AI提需求、定标准。

过去我们认为AI会淘汰程序员。实践后，我们发现程序员依然重要，其主要精力从写代码和做测试这类重复性工作中，转而从事两类新工作：一是给AI提要求；二是给AI的成果定标准。能转型的程序员不仅不会被淘汰，还会在与AI协作过程中成长为“超级个体”。

周鸿祎认为开源是解决AI安全问题的最好手段，而非把模型锁起来。

我认为开源是解决安全问题的最好手段。当技术掌握在少数人手中时，如果这部分人拒绝解决安全问题，会带来隐患。防范智能体带来的社会风险，不是把模型“锁”起来，而要强调以人为本、智能向善，安全与普惠并重。

周鸿祎认为美国AI巨头以安全为由呼吁停止开发，是为保住领先并阻止中国开源反超。

一些美国AI巨头掌握先发优势，多次以安全为由，要求停止AI开发，这背后可能主要有两个原因：一是他们掌握了核心技术，不希望别人也掌握此类技术；二是中国开源人工智能的发展带来了技术普惠，有可能推动实现对美反超，这是他们不希望看到的。

哈萨比斯表示，DeepMind自2010年创立起就担忧AI安全，至今依然如此，因为这项技术具有通用性和两用性。

我们从2010年DeepMind创立之初就一直担心安全问题，现在依然如此，因为这项技术是通用的，可以被用于任何用途。

原文 (en)

We were worried about safety from the very beginning of DeepMind in 2010, and we still are now, because it’s general. So it can be used for anything.

陈福阳表示，博通今年AI半导体收入约580亿美元，预计明年大致翻倍，后年再翻倍。

这家芯片设计公司表示，预计今年AI半导体收入将达到580亿美元，CEO陈福阳称明年应会大致翻倍，再下一年再翻倍。

原文 (en)

The chip designer has said it expects AI semiconductor revenue to generate $58 billion this year, which CEO Hock Tan has said should be expected to roughly double next year and double again the year after that.