Patel 估计按当前扩产节奏，2030 年 ASML 年产约 100 台 EUV，除非向蔡司等供应商注入巨额资金。
按照供应链目前的扩张速度，100 台大致仍是正确的数字。2030 年？2030 年 100 台 ASML 设备。但如果你对蔡司说“给你 100 亿美元，拜托赶紧扩产”，情况就会改变。原文 (en)
The way the supply chain is expanding currently, 100 is roughly still the right number. For 2030? 100 ASML tools for 2030. But if you said, "Carl Zeiss, here’s $10 billion. Please fucking just expand production," that would change things.
Dylan Patel 称中国已有与阿比林相当规模的AI数据中心园区，其速度、规模、低成本和垂直整合令人惊叹。
中国也有规模相近的园区，但国外很少有人进去看过。我们9月参观了其中一个，对其建设速度、规模、极低成本和深度垂直整合感到惊讶。原文 (en)
China has campuses on a similar scale, though few people outside the country have had a look inside. In September, we visited one, and we found the speed, scale, ultra low cost, and deep vertical integration astonishing.
Dylan Patel 认为垂直整合目前尚不能带来超大规模客户订单，但随着电力紧缺和供电架构变革，其作用可能上升。
现在判断垂直整合能否成为中国数据中心市场的显著优势还为时过早。目前它让整合型厂商对成本和工期有更强的掌控，但超大规模云厂商选择供应商仍主要看资源和过往业绩。随着电力获取变难、数据中心内部供电系统被重新设计，这一点可能改变。原文 (en)
It is too early to say whether vertical integration will become a meaningful advantage in China’s datacenter market. For now, it gives integrated players more control over cost and schedule, but hyperscalers still choose vendors mainly on resources and track record. That could change as power becomes harder to secure and the power system inside the datacenter is redesigned.
Dylan Patel 指出能源获取正成为数据中心开发商的卖点，供电架构正转向高压直流，电池取代UPS。
在不同市场，获取能源正成为数据中心开发商所售产品的一部分。其次，从电网接入到机架的供电架构正在被重新设计。在美国，行业正转向更高电压的直流供电，而电池备份单元和储能系统开始取代UPS的作用。原文 (en)
Across different markets, access to energy is becoming part of what a datacenter developer sells. Second, the power architecture from the grid connection to the rack is being redesigned. In the US, the industry is moving toward higher-voltage DC power, while battery backup units (BBUs) and BESS are starting to take over the role of UPS.
Dylan Patel 指出中国数据中心市场竞争激烈，租金减半、资本开支下降25%，内蒙古电价全球最低之一。
中国数据中心市场竞争激烈。过去五年租金大约减半，至不含电费约每千瓦每月40美元。同期资本开支下降约25%，低于每兆瓦300万美元。内蒙古的综合电价约每千瓦时0.055美元，属全球最低之列。原文 (en)
China’s datacenter market is highly competitive. Rents have roughly halved over the past five years, to about $40/kW/month excluding power. Capex has fallen about 25% over the same period, to less than $3mm per MW. Power in Inner Mongolia costs about $0.055/kWh all-in, among the lowest in the world.
Dylan Patel 认为谷歌 TPUv7 在智能体推理的每美元性能上已追平或超越 NVIDIA，迫使 NVIDIA 紧急调集工程力量应对。
TPU 在每美元性能上更优或具备竞争力，对 NVIDIA 高层来说是一种不愿接受的新体验。TPU 在 Qwen3.5 397B FP8 上发布首个 AgentX 结果、显示 TPUv7 FP8 甚至能击败 GB300 NVL72 FP4 后，NVIDIA 立即派出由工程师和智能体集群组成的突击队，在中美两地加班到深夜和周末。原文 (en)
TPUs delivering better performance per dollar or competitive performance per dollar is a new experience that NVIDIA senior leadership is unwilling to accept. As soon as TPU posted its first AgentX result on Qwen3.5 397B FP8 showing that even TPUv7 FP8 could beat GB300 NVL72 FP4, NVIDIA tasked a strike force of human engineers and agent swarms to work 997, late into the night until 2am local time and on weekends, across USA and mainland China.